Cardiovascular Events in People With Type 2 Diabetes: Performance of Framingham, UKPDS, and ADVANCE Risk Equations

The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the Framingham, UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), and the Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) risk equations in the prediction of 4-year cardiovascular disease CVD) in Iranian people with type 2 diabetes. The 4-year risks of CVD were estimated using the three equations in a community of 557 patients with type 2 diabetes and free of CVD at baseline. A trained physician evaluated all of the participants regarding the occurrence of CVD events during follow-up. CVD was defined as major events including fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction as well as fatal/non-fatal stroke, minor events including treated coronary heart disease (CHD), and established peripheral arterial disease (PAD). During four years of follow-up, 64 CVD events were observed (66% minor CVD events). Despite having a good calibration (estimated to observed ratio ranging from 91.37 to 98.2 percent, Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 (HLχ2) values <15), both general (Framingham) and diabetes-specific (UKPDS and ADVANCE) equations did not have adequate discriminative ability (Area Under the Curve (AUC) ranging from 0.48 to 0.56). Framingham, UKPDS, and ADVANCE risk equations, regardless of being general or diabetes-specific, could not precisely predict 4-year risk of CVD in Iranian individuals with type 2 diabetes.