Transition in risks of higher order births in Nepal: a life table analysis

This paper examines declining fertility in a low development setting. Specifically, this paper analyzes transitions in age at first birth and of the length of birth intervals, the variations of the length of birth intervals by selected socioeconomic and demographic factors, and the determinants of the risk of higher order birth in Nepal by using the DHS data. There is very little change in the age at start of fertility schedule but the proportion of women progressing to the next higher order birth from the second, third and fourth births has declined over time. Increases in the median length of higher order birth intervals and decline in the ultimate proportions of women attaining higher order births drive declines in the pace of childbearing and overall fertility level. Controlling for other factors, higher order births are more likely among women who had given a previous birth before the survey period or women who had a female birth compared to women who did not have such births. Significantly, lower hazard ratio of the second birth is observed among women who are more educated, working in non-agriculture sector, from well-to-do households, with higher age at first birth, and whose first child survived during infancy.