Open AccessPREDICTING NPLs FOR CROATIA WITH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
Author(s) -
Mile Bošnjak,
AUTHOR_ID,
Jurica Vukas,
Ivan Šverko
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
ekonomska misao i praksa
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1848-963X
pISSN - 1330-1039
DOI - 10.17818/emip/2021/2.13
Subject(s) - unemployment , non performing loan , context (archaeology) , economics , unemployment rate , index (typography) , covid-19 , quantile regression , volume (thermodynamics) , econometrics , macroeconomics , geography , computer science , medicine , disease , archaeology , loan , pathology , world wide web , infectious disease (medical specialty) , physics , quantum mechanics
This paper aims to examine some of the macroeconomic drivers of nonperforming loans (NPL) in Croatia. Unemployment rate, industrial production index, construction works volume and the number of tourist arrivals were evaluated as the drivers on a quarterly data sample from 2008q4 to 2020q4. Following quantile regression approach, unemployment rates and construction works volume appeared as significant drivers of NPL in Croatia. Furthermore, empirical findings from this paper suggest asymmetric effects on NPL from its drivers. While decrease in construction works volume and increase in unemployment rates were found to correspond with increase in NPL, an increase in construction works volume and decrease in unemployment rates were not correlated with decrease in NPL. Consequently, the paper brings implications for credit institutions in Croatia within the context of COVID-19 pandemic crises.