Open AccessMajor predictive risk factors for cytokine storm in COVID-19 patients (Clinical trials)
Author(s) -
Anna Yu. Anisenkova,
Svetlana V. Apalko,
Zakhar P. Asaulenko,
А Н Богданов,
Dmitriy A. Vologzhanin,
Evgenii Yu. Garbuzov,
А С Голота,
Тatyana A. Kamilova,
О. А. Клиценко,
Evdokiya M. Minina,
Sergei V. Mosenko,
Stanislav P. Urazov,
Dmitriy N. Khobotnikov,
Sergey G. Sсherbak
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
vestnik severo-zapadnogo gosudarstvennogo medicinskogo universiteta im. i.i. mečnikova
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2618-9704
pISSN - 2618-7116
DOI - 10.17816/mechnikov61889
Subject(s) - cytokine storm , medicine , cytokine , risk factor , storm , covid-19 , interleukin 6 , incidence (geometry) , disease , oceanography , physics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , optics , geology
AIM: Searching for predictors of cytokine storm in patients with COVID-19 and creating a risk scale for this complication for practical implementation.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included 458 patients with confirmed COVID-19 with signs of viral lung lesion according to computer tomography. The patients were divided into 2 groups: with a stable course of moderate severity (100 patients) and with progressive moderate, severe and extremely severe course (358 patients).
RESULTS: It has been established that the main risk factors for the development of cytokine storm in COVID-19 patients are interleukin-6 concentration 23 pg/ml, the dynamics of the index according to the NEWS scale 0, ferritin concentration 485 ng/ml, D-dimers 2,1, C-reactive protein 50 mg/l, the number of lymphocytes in the blood 0,72 ∙ 109/l, age 40 years. Cytokine storm incidence correlates with an increase in the number of risk factors. For practical use the scale is applied in 3 groups. In the patients of the first group (0-1 factor) almost no cytokine storm risk was detected, in the second group (2-3 factors) the probability of a storm was 55 % (increased by 35.5 times), in the third group (4 risk factors) reaches 96 % (increased by 718 times).
CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic and monitoring criteria of cytokine storm in the patients with COVID-19 were established. The developed prognostic scale allows to identify patients at high risk of developing cytokine storm for early anti-inflammatory therapy.