Open AccessA Study on Estimation and Prediction of Vector Time Series Model Using Financial Big Data (Interest Rates)
Author(s) -
Chang-Ho An Jae-Hyun Kim
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
türk bilgisayar ve matematik eğitimi dergisi
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.218
H-Index - 3
ISSN - 1309-4653
DOI - 10.17762/turcomat.v12i5.951
Subject(s) - interest rate , econometrics , granger causality , autoregressive integrated moving average , vector autoregression , treasury , time series , autoregressive model , economics , statistics , computer science , mathematics , finance , archaeology , history
Due to the global economic downturn, the Korean economy continues to slump. Hereupon the Bank of Korea implemented a monetary policy of cutting the base rate to actively respond to the economic slowdown and low prices. Economists have been trying to predict and analyze interest rate hikes and cuts. Therefore, in this study, a prediction model was estimated and evaluated using vector autoregressive model with time series data of long- and short-term interest rates. The data used for this purpose were call rate (1 day), loan interest rate, and Treasury rate (3 years) between January 2002 and December 2019, which were extracted monthly from the Bank of Korea database and used as variables, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used as a research model. The stationarity test of variables was confirmed by the ADF-unit root test. Bidirectional linear dependency relationship between variables was confirmed by the Granger causality test. For the model identification, AICC, SBC, and HQC statistics, which were the minimum information criteria, were used. The significance of the parameters was confirmed through t-tests, and the fitness of the estimated prediction model was confirmed by the significance test of the cross-correlation matrix and the multivariate Portmanteau test. As a result of predicting call rate, loan interest rate, and Treasury rate using the prediction model presented in this study, it is predicted that interest rates will continue to drop.