Prognosis of the development of pneumonia in children at the outbreak of respiratory mycoplasmosis

Aim. To identify risk factors for mycoplasma pneumonia at the outbreak of respiratory mycoplasmosis in the children’s collective using a comprehensive statistical analysis. Methods. 120 children aged 12-15 years from the focus of respiratory mycoplasmosis outbreak were observed. They were divided into two groups: study group - 33 children with mycoplasma pneumonia, and control group - 56 children from the focus of infection, 14 of which during the observation period had no disease simptoms, and 42 children had other forms of respiratory mycoplasmosis. Results. 6 factors influencing the development of mycoplasma pneumonia were identified in children from the focus of respiratory mycoplasmosis outbreak. The correlation analysis was performed and one-dimensional models of the chance of developing pneumonia were constructed by calculating odds ratios. Past history of pneumonia increases the risk for pneumonia by 23.46 times, passive smoking in a child - by 2.77 times. At the same time, emergency prevention with immunotropic drugs reduces the risk for pneumonia by 8.93 times, daily walking - by 3.31 times, walking for more than 2 hours - by 3.83 times, increasing fruit in the diet - by 3.09 times and taking multivitamins - by 2.56 times compared to cases when these measures were not taken. The binary logistic regression was calculated to build a multidimensional research model. The sensitivity of this model was 87.88%, specificity - 91.07%. Conclusion. At the outbreak of respiratory mycoplasmosis the risk factors for the development of mycoplasmal pneumonia are pneumonia in past medical history, smoking in a child’s family; preventive measures are long-term daily exposure to fresh air, emergency prevention with immunotropic, complex multivitamin preparations with trace elements and lactic acid bacteria, dietary intake corrected for fruit intake.