Open AccessWater supply failure probability under influence of climate change—Balsillas river basin case study
Author(s) -
Darwin Mena Rentería,
Eydy Michell Espinosa,
Paula Soler,
Miguel Cañón Ramos,
Santiago Duarte,
Jordi Rafael Palacios González
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
revista facultad de ingeniería universidad de antioquia
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.16
H-Index - 12
eISSN - 2422-2844
pISSN - 0120-6230
DOI - 10.17533/udea.redin.20201008
Subject(s) - downscaling , climate change , environmental science , water resource management , water resources , agriculture , structural basin , scale (ratio) , water scarcity , drainage basin , climate model , environmental resource management , climatology , hydrology (agriculture) , geography , engineering , geology , ecology , paleontology , oceanography , cartography , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , biology
This project assesses the risk of water supply failure for the agricultural sector under climate change conditions by implementing hydrological models that support decision-making for satisfying consumptive demands in times of scarcity. This project was developed using hydrological modeling tools such as the HydroBID software and the SIMGES and SIMRISK water resource management models of AQUATOOL DSS. The flow series for a current scenario were obtained for different climate change scenarios from a Global Climate Model (GCM) and the Coordinated Regional Experiment on Climate Reduction (CORDEX) by downscaling the results from the global scale to basin-scale using a statistical method based on chaos theory. These projections show that under conditions of climate change, the agricultural sector of the Balsillas basin will not suffer significant impacts since they will be able to satisfy most demand points.