Open AccessCORRELATION-REGRESSION ANALYSIS AS A TOOL FOR PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF THE FUNCTIONING OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLUSTER IN THE HOUSING SECTOR ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY
Author(s) -
Лейла Борисовна Леонова
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
vestnik ugntu. nauka, obrazovanie, èkonomika. seriâ èkonomika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2541-8904
DOI - 10.17122/2541-8904-2020-3-33-57-42
Subject(s) - gross regional product , gross domestic product , production (economics) , regression analysis , product (mathematics) , cluster (spacecraft) , quality (philosophy) , economics , goods and services , work (physics) , socioeconomic status , population , economic sector , consumption (sociology) , gross output , economic indicator , economic growth , economy , macroeconomics , engineering , statistics , mechanical engineering , philosophy , social science , geometry , mathematics , demography , epistemology , sociology , computer science , programming language
At present, when the country has successfully implemented a cluster policy since 2010, which contributes to increasing the competitiveness of both regions and individual industries, the impact of industry clusters on the main economic indicator is an extremely relevant and important issue. Of course, basically, when we talk about clustering, we are talking primarily about industrial network structures. However, given the need for social transformations in the country and improving the quality of life of the population, it is necessary to know how the development of the socioeconomic cluster in the housing and utilities sector will affect the level of economic development of the region and the country as a whole. The article discusses the possibility of using correlation-regression analysis to predict the gross regional product (GRP) depending on the factors that are significantly influenced by the housing and utilities sector. These factors, in our opinion, include “The volume of shipped goods of our own production, works and services performed on our own by type of activity”, “The volume of work performed in the type of economic activity“ Construction ”,“ Investments in fixed assets ”,“ Final consumption ”, etc. The calculations were carried out for the Sverdlovsk region. To predict the GRP indicator, the authors used two-factor models. The obtained mathematical models confirm the significant impact of all considered factors on the performance indicator. As a result of the calculations, it can be noted that the gross regional product increases by an average of 102 million rubles. excluding the indicator of the volume of own production only due to the volume of construction and installation work. The gross regional product decreases by an average of 94,560 million rubles. excluding the indicator of investments in fixed assets due to the indicator "final consumption of the Sverdlovsk region" and increases by 5.56 million rubles. through investments in fixed assets of the Sverdlovsk region. Thus, the most significant factor influencing the region's GRP is the “Final consumption in the Sverdlovsk region” factor, which means that the proposed mathematical models will be able to adequately assess the impact on the region’s GRP of the activity of the socio-economic cluster in the housing sector, since the population's expenditures on Housing and utility services of the Sverdlovsk region make up about 28-35% of all consumed services and affect the final consumption of the region's population, especially in the context of constantly growing tariffs in this area.