Open AccessAssessment and forecasting bankruptcy risk of mining companies
Author(s) -
Nataliya Kazakova,
A. F. Leshchinskaya,
Anna Sivkova
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
èkonomika v promyšlennosti
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2413-662X
pISSN - 2072-1633
DOI - 10.17073/2072-1633-2018-3-261-272
Subject(s) - bankruptcy , insolvency , generalization , business , actuarial science , reliability (semiconductor) , production (economics) , financial ratio , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , finance , economics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics , macroeconomics
Comparative analysis of domestic and foreign methods of bankruptcy diagnostics allowed to offer key determinants for modeling the probability of bankruptcy taking into account the industry specificity of mining and metallurgical companies. On the basis of a generalization of the results of the correlation analysis, a high interrelation between indices of industrial production and indices – indicators of the probability of bankruptcy of these companies was revealed. The possibilities of monitoring the evaluation of indicators obtained on the basis of financial statements. Monitoring of calculated coefficients is necessary to ensure the reliability and sustainability of companies’ work and is a forecasting mechanism that allows to predict changes in the financial situation in the future. The bankruptcy probability assessment was carried out for a group of enterprises including: Рublic Сompany Vysokogorsky ore mining and processing enterprise, Рublic Сompany Bashkir coppersulfur plant, Рublic Сompany Pechenganikel being a production unit of Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company OJSC and Рublic Сompany Severstal, RUSAL. As a result of the conducted research of the five largest companies of the mining and metallurgical complex, based on the indicators of the probability of bankruptcy, proposals have been developed for the system of indicators for inclusion in the discriminant model of forecasting bankruptcy, which will improve the accuracy of the results of diagnosing insolvency risks of companies. In addition, a basic algorithm is proposed that reflects the scenario of controlling the risk of bankruptcy for the companies of the mining and metallurgical complex.