Open AccessTrade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence
Author(s) -
George Alessandria,
Carter Mix
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
international finance discussion papers
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2767-4509
pISSN - 1073-2500
DOI - 10.17016/ifdp.2021.1330
Subject(s) - economics , trade barrier , investment (military) , international economics , tariff , commercial policy , free trade , international free trade agreement , international trade , monetary economics , politics , political science , law
We evaluate the aggregate effects of changes in trade barriers when these changes can be implemented slowly over time and trade responds gradually to changes in trade barriers because firm-level trade costs make exporting a dynamic decision. Our model shows how expectations of changes in trade barriers affect the economy. We find that while decreases in trade barriers increase economic activity, expectations of lower future trade barriers temporarily decrease investment, hours worked, and output. Further- more, canceling an expected decline in future trade barriers raises investment and output in the short run but substantially lowers medium-run growth. These effects are larger when the expected reform is bigger. In the data, we find that countries with more trade growth after the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) rounds decreased investment and hours worked in the years leading to the tariff cuts, as predicted by our model.