Open AccessRisk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks
Author(s) -
Danielle D. Sant ́Anna,
Carlos Arthur B. da Silva,
Souza Gomes
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
revista de economia e sociologia rural
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.303
H-Index - 16
eISSN - 1806-9479
pISSN - 0103-2003
DOI - 10.1590/s0103-20032003000200005
Subject(s) - profitability index , investment (military) , business , agricultural science , incentive , order (exchange) , agricultural economics , finance , environmental science , economics , microeconomics , law , politics , political science
A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L) on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%). In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector’s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm