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Modeling the Dynamics of Smolt Production in Atlantic Salmon
Author(s) -
Power M.,
Power G.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
transactions of the american fisheries society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.696
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 1548-8659
pISSN - 0002-8487
DOI - 10.1577/1548-8659(1994)123<0535:mtdosp>2.3.co;2
Subject(s) - salmo , oncorhynchus , environmental science , fishery , density dependence , precipitation , population , abundance (ecology) , smoltification , ecology , salmonidae , fish <actinopterygii> , biology , geography , meteorology , demography , sociology
Abstract Effective management of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar requires accurate predictions of the numbers of smolts a spawning stock can produce and an understanding of species population dynamics. Because field population data are often lacking and are difficult and expensive to obtain, we propose a simulation modeling framework for analyzing Atlantic salmon smolt production dynamics. The model incorporates density‐dependent mortality and the random environmental influences of temperature and precipitation to determine smolt abundance and growth patterns. A series of simulated growth–temperature relationships are developed for use in the model based on previous work completed for sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka and field observations on the range of temperatures over which Atlantic salmon feed. The model is described and used to examine the potential responses of Atlantic salmon stocks in New Brunswick, Quebec, and Labrador to changes in temperature, precipitation, and alevin density. Modeled changes in the climatic variables are similar to those suggested by climate change literature. Results suggest that temperature and alevin density have significant and largely independent effects on smolt output and parr densities.