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Simulating the Dynamic Trends of Fisheries Regulated by Small Daily Bag Limits
Author(s) -
Porch Clay E.,
Fox William W.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
transactions of the american fisheries society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.696
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 1548-8659
pISSN - 0002-8487
DOI - 10.1577/1548-8659(1990)119<0836:stdtof>2.3.co;2
Subject(s) - negative binomial distribution , censoring (clinical trials) , poisson distribution , fishing , statistics , exponential distribution , econometrics , stock (firearms) , exponential function , environmental science , mathematics , fishery , geography , biology , mathematical analysis , archaeology
We developed an algorithm for simulating the effects of potential bag limits. The algorithm uses statistical distributions to model the frequency distribution of catch per trip. The moment equations of the distribution are keyed to stock abundance and the coefficient of fishing mortality rate, which allow the model to reflect the dynamics of the fishery. The catch with the bag limit is calculated by censoring the simulated distribution. We establish the conditions under which compounded Poisson distributions, such as the negative binomial, can be expected to provide adequate models for the catch distributions of recreational fisheries. We also discuss the assumptions that underlie the method of censoring catch‐per‐trip distributions, and, where appropriate, suggest alternative models. An example is developed in which we use the negative binomial distribution to model catch per trip and the familiar exponential model to simulate the change in stock abundance due to fishing mortality.