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Implications of Climate Change for Fisheries Management Policy
Author(s) -
Healey M. C.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
transactions of the american fisheries society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.696
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 1548-8659
pISSN - 0002-8487
DOI - 10.1577/1548-8659(1990)119<0366:ioccff>2.3.co;2
Subject(s) - climate change , status quo , environmental science , current (fluid) , effects of global warming , adaptation (eye) , global warming , natural resource economics , ecology , environmental resource management , economics , biology , oceanography , geology , neuroscience , market economy
It is now generally agreed that world climate will warm significantly over the next half century, but the effects of that warming on fishery resources are uncertain. Unpredictable changes in biological systems that result from perturbations such as climatic warming can be classified into four types: (1) changes that are consistent with current equilibrium models (predictions); (2) high‐frequency, short‐lived changes that cannot be predicted by current models (noise); (3) low‐frequency, short‐lived changes that cannot be predicted by current models (anomalies); and (4) low‐frequency, long‐lived changes that cannot be predicted by current models (catastrophes). Climatic change is a gradual process and the responses of biological systems are generally expected to be of the first type. However, increases in both the frequency and amplitude of the other types of response cannot be ruled out. The typical, incremental, remedial policy adjustment of governments and agencies is unsuited to uncertain changes in fishery resource dynamics of types 2–4, particularly those of type 4. An emphasis on mitigating the effects of climatic change is also likely to be unsuccessful because it focuses on the status quo and ignores opportunities that may be inherent in the changes taking place. Bolder policies that involve adaptation to new climate conditions and experimental probing of system behavior are more likely to be successful.