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An Application of Ecological Modelling: Impact of Thermal Effluent on a Smallmouth Bass Population
Author(s) -
Shuter B. J.,
Wismer D. A.,
Regier H. A.,
Matuszek J. E.
Publication year - 1985
Publication title -
transactions of the american fisheries society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.696
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 1548-8659
pISSN - 0002-8487
DOI - 10.1577/1548-8659(1985)114<631:aaoem>2.0.co;2
Subject(s) - environmental science , population , fishing , effluent , ecology , population model , bass (fish) , micropterus , fishery , range (aeronautics) , biology , engineering , environmental engineering , demography , sociology , aerospace engineering
We report on a 20‐year integrated field, laboratory, and simulation study of the impact of thermal effluent from a nuclear power plant on the smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieui population in Baie du Doré, Lake Huron. A quantitative model was constructed to forecast the range of likely effects of the plant on the population. The model was based on the findings of 50 years of basic research on smallmouth bass ecology in Ontario and on 15 years of environmental and biological data collected at Baie du Doré before the power plant became operational. The model embodies detailed descriptions of both the natural variation in water temperature at Baie du Doré, and the mechanisms whereby variations in temperature generate variations in cohort strength. Five years of monitoring data, collected after the plant became operational, were used to evaluate the forecasts of the model. Observed effects on timing of spawning and individual growth were generally within the range defined by the forecasts. The thermal effluent also altered the distribution of adult fish and this, in turn, led to an increase in the effectiveness of the angling fishery. Data from the postoperational period were used to refine the assessment model. The revised model was then used to evaluate the long‐term effects on the population of the changes observed to date. We describe how the availability of extensive site‐specific and species‐specific data helped us to deal with technical problems that have plagued other impact assessment projects. We also discuss the contributions of basic research and quantitative modelling to the effectiveness of the study.