Stock Assessment for the 21st Century

During the 20th century, human technology has achieved the capacity to impose radical changes on the Earth's ecosystem. From a fisheries perspective, commercial fleets have become powerful enough to overexploit many stocks, while atmospheric changes and pollution are altering biologically important ocean processes. Commercial and cultural concerns for the marine world have expanded across a broad range of human organizations. Competing interests seek access to fish populations, as well as to other oceanic resources. The technology and sociology of the 20th century will impose severe demands on stock assessment for the 21st. This paper speculates on the evolution of fisheries statistics required to address these challenges. We emphasize how properly archived data will be critical for future assessments. Technological advances also provide new opportunities for data collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination. Although knowledge alone cannot guarantee preservation, scientists can at least embark on a course that will significantly increase human understanding of fish populations during the next century.