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Potential Effects of Global Warming on Native Fishes of the Southern Great Plains and the Southwest
Author(s) -
Matthews William J.,
Zimmerman Earl G.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
fisheries
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.725
H-Index - 79
eISSN - 1548-8446
pISSN - 0363-2415
DOI - 10.1577/1548-8446(1990)015<0026:peogwo>2.0.co;2
Subject(s) - extinction (optical mineralogy) , global warming , range (aeronautics) , ecology , local extinction , streams , climate change , environmental change , local adaptation , effects of global warming on oceans , biology , environmental science , geography , population , biological dispersal , paleontology , computer network , materials science , demography , sociology , computer science , composite material
Fish in streams of the southern Great Plains and southwestern North America may be particularly vulnerable to extirpation or extinction due to global warming. Streams of this region already have some of the hottest free‐flowing water on earth (summer maxima of 38–40°C), and even now fish live at times very near their lethal thermal limits. Unlike many terrestrial and marine organisms or fishes of some rivers, fishes in these prairie stream systems cannot migrate northward to cooler temperatures in the event of global warming. If warming of 3–4°C occurs, a substantial number of species endemic to this region could face extinction unless they adapt behaviorally or genetically for thermal increases. Existing evidence suggests little likelihood of successful behavioral adjustments. Data on thermal tolerance of local populations provide conflicting evidence: one widespread species of the Great Plains shows no difference in thermal tolerance across its range, whereas another shows adaptation to environmental temperatures at the local level. Because of the evolutionarily brief time predicted for global warming, it is unlikely that genetic options can arise rapidly enough through mutation to allow species to cope with hotter environments. Species that survive major increases in environmental temperature will likely be ones with adequate existing genetic variation to allow survival and selection of at least some individuals. Overall, the outlook for native fishes of the Great Plains and southwest is bleak, if predicted temperature increases occur.