Open AccessDevising a method for the formation of sustainable chains of supply of raw materials from mercantile exchange to a timber processing enterprise considering uncertainties and risks
Author(s) -
Lev Mazelis,
Rodion Rogulin
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
eastern-european journal of enterprise technologies
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.268
H-Index - 24
eISSN - 1729-4061
pISSN - 1729-3774
DOI - 10.15587/1729-4061.2021.242960
Subject(s) - raw material , purchasing , procurement , computer science , quality (philosophy) , time horizon , plan (archaeology) , heuristic , material flow , operations research , process engineering , operations management , business , engineering , finance , ecology , philosophy , chemistry , epistemology , marketing , archaeology , artificial intelligence , biology , history , organic chemistry
The relevant problem of guaranteed supply of high-quality raw materials to a timber processing enterprise that does not have its own sources of raw materials is considered. A method for the formation of sustainable chains of supplying raw materials to a timber processing enterprise was proposed, taking into consideration uncertainties and risks associated with the purchase of raw materials on the mercantile exchange and the implementation of the circuit of delivery to a warehouse. A dynamic model, which is a problem of stochastic nonlinear programming, the objective function of which is the cost of purchasing raw materials, was developed. The model makes it possible to form a plan for purchasing raw materials on the timber section of the mercantile exchange on a given planning horizon, taking into consideration uncertainties when it comes to the number of daily offers, their volumes, and prices. The risk of cancellation of the concluded contract due to the loss of the quality of raw materials during delivery and non-fulfillment of delivery terms was also taken into consideration. To find a solution to the model, a two-stage circuit, in which the first stage involves a procurement plan that is close to optimal, was proposed. At the second stage, a plan that is closest to the basic one in terms of the volume of purchased raw materials and minimizing the total costs is chosen for each day of implementation of a random flow of applications. The numerical solution at the first stage is found using the heuristic algorithm that uses the branch and bound method and the genetic algorithm at certain steps. At the second stage, the multi-criteria problem of mathematical programming is solved numerically. An example of the formation by a timber processing enterprise in the Far East of a suboptimal procurement plan that ensures an increase in the efficiency and sustainability of economic activity in the long term is considered