A new approach to detect epidemic of DHF by combining ARIMA model and adjusted Tukey’s control chart with interpretation rules | Zendy

Jatupat Mekparyup | Zendy; Kidakan Saithanu | Zendy

Open Access

A new approach to detect epidemic of DHF by combining ARIMA model and adjusted Tukey’s control chart with interpretation rules

Author(s) -

Jatupat Mekparyup,

Kidakan Saithanu

Publication year - 2016

Publication title -

interventional medicine and applied science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.195

H-Index - 14

eISSN - 2061-5094

pISSN - 2061-1617

DOI - 10.1556/1646.8.2016.3.6

Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , statistics , dengue hemorrhagic fever , dengue fever , control chart , chart , mean squared error , medicine , tukey's range test , moving average , mathematics , econometrics , dengue virus , time series , computer science , virology , process (computing) , operating system

The aim of this study was to propose a new method to detect the epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,2) 12 ] with no constant and adjusted Tukey's control chart and the results obtained were interpreted using seventh interpretation rule. Data on the number of DHF cases in Chonburi reported during 2007-2013 were used. The results indicated that this new approach efficiently detected the epidemic of DHF in October 2015 with the forecasted number of DHF (257 cases) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE = 46.71).

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