Open AccessA new approach to detect epidemic of DHF by combining ARIMA model and adjusted Tukey’s control chart with interpretation rules
Author(s) -
Jatupat Mekparyup,
Kidakan Saithanu
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
interventional medicine and applied science/interventional medicine and applied science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.195
H-Index - 14
eISSN - 2061-5094
pISSN - 2061-1617
DOI - 10.1556/1646.8.2016.3.6
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , statistics , dengue hemorrhagic fever , dengue fever , control chart , chart , mean squared error , medicine , tukey's range test , moving average , mathematics , econometrics , dengue virus , time series , computer science , virology , process (computing) , operating system
The aim of this study was to propose a new method to detect the epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,2) 12 ] with no constant and adjusted Tukey's control chart and the results obtained were interpreted using seventh interpretation rule. Data on the number of DHF cases in Chonburi reported during 2007-2013 were used. The results indicated that this new approach efficiently detected the epidemic of DHF in October 2015 with the forecasted number of DHF (257 cases) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE = 46.71).