Open AccessCLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WHEAT PRODUCERS IN BULGARIA
Author(s) -
Tanya Georgieva
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
trakia journal of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1313-3551
pISSN - 1312-1723
DOI - 10.15547/tjs.2019.s.01.076
Subject(s) - yield (engineering) , winter wheat , climate change , environmental science , agriculture , linear regression , regression analysis , crop yield , statistics , mathematics , geography , agronomy , ecology , biology , materials science , archaeology , metallurgy
The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for assessing the level of climatic risk in agriculture and to assess the risk of climate variability faced by wheat producers in Bulgaria. The analysis is based on secondary data on the average wheat yield during the period 1998 - 2018. Using a breakpoint linear regression model we estimated the predictable component in the time series of the average crop yield. Climate risk was assessed using a detrended coefficient of variation. We conclude that about 10% of the average yield variation from its typical value can be explained by the impact of random factors, among which climate variability over the period.