Open AccessAnalysis of cowpea price forecasting in Adamawa state, Nigeria
Author(s) -
Troy Joshua,
Jimjel Zalkuwi
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
agricultural science and technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1314-412X
pISSN - 1313-8820
DOI - 10.15547/ast.2019.03.039
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , unit root test , commission , agricultural economics , unit (ring theory) , government (linguistics) , state (computer science) , econometrics , nonprobability sampling , unit root , smoothing , economics , statistics , mathematics , business , agricultural science , environmental science , finance , demography , algorithm , population , linguistics , philosophy , mathematics education , cointegration , sociology
. The study was conducted to analyze cowpea price forecasting in Adamawa State, Nigeria. The sources of data for the study were secondary data which were collected from State Planning Commission of Adamawa State for a period of 5 years (2013-2017). Purposive sampling techniques were used for selection of the study area. Dicky Fuller Test and Simple Exponential Smoothing Model were used as analytical tools. The unit root test analysis revealed almost all the markets price series were non-stationary at level except Jambutu market (AD5) at 5% significant level but became stationary after first difference. The result of Exponential Smoothing Model showed that there will be upward trend of cowpea prices in Adamawa State in February and October – November in the year 2018 and therefore, it is recommended that provision of better infrastructural facilities such as construction of accessible and motorable roads, and communication network by government and NGOs. This would reduce transfer cost which usually gets translated to the prices of the cowpeas, especially across markets in critical distance.