Open AccessFinancial analysis of potential Pinus patula plantations in Antioquia, Colombia
Author(s) -
L José Ramírez,
Sergio A. Orrego,
Héctor I. Restrepo
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
revista facultad nacional de agronomía medellín
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.199
H-Index - 7
eISSN - 2248-7026
pISSN - 0304-2847
DOI - 10.15446/rfnam.v73n2.82833
Subject(s) - stumpage , profitability index , agricultural economics , internal rate of return , cash flow , productivity , pinus patula , financial analysis , yield (engineering) , site index , economics , present value , net present value , agricultural science , forestry , environmental science , agroforestry , geography , finance , production (economics) , materials science , metallurgy , macroeconomics
The establishment of commercial forest plantations requires the selection of sites where reasonable profitability can be attained. A financial analysis was made for the identification of the most suitable areas for the establishment of new Pinus patula plantations in the central region of Antioquia, Colombia. The analysis was performed assuming basic silvicultural treatments at the establishment but no management during the entire rotation period. A volume yield data at the stand level was obtained from a previously fitted model that uses biophysical variables and stand density as predictors. The estimated stand volume, a detailed cash flow, and a derived stumpage price were combined to perform a financial analysis. The Land Expectation Value (LEV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) at the optimal rotation age, along with their spatial variation, were calculated in this study. Results suggest that the estimated volume and the current stumpage price are not sufficient to guarantee reasonable profitability for new timberland investments. While the LEV was negative, the IRR was in the range 4.1±1.5%, which is less than the discount rate of 6.8% used in the financial analysis. However, a positive LEV and an IRR at 8% would be achieved if forest productivity increases by 20% because of silvicultural practices or costs reduction in a similar proportion (obtaining IRRs up to 8.4%). Moreover, if the government provide subsidies, the IRR would increase up to 10.3% (without requiring an increase in productivity or a decrease in costs) on sites with high growth potential (mean annual increment greater than 16 m3 ha-1 year-1), and close to the mills (less than 45 km radii).