Geographical peculiarities of the mortality risk of the population of Sumy region from cardiovascular diseases

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main group of diseases from which the population of Sumy region suffers. They have not only high rates of primary morbidity and prevalence, but also play the leading role among the causes of mortality in the region. The aim of the article is clarification of the geographical features of mortality of the population of Sumy region from diseases of the circulatory system. In 2018 compared to 2012 the mortality of the general population in Sumy region from this class of nosology decreased by 1.17%, although among the able-bodied population it grew by 1.94%. The geographicaldifferences of mortality (including separately the group of able-bodied population) from various CVDs: coronary heart disease, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, cerebral strokes and strokes with hypertension, were established. For determining the regional features of mortality of the population from cardiovascular diseases we used the integrated indicator «disease mortality risk assessment». This indicator takes into account the relationship between the primary morbidity, prevalence of diseases and the causes of mortality and makes it possible to assess the state of health of the population in terms of CVDs. It was found that the inhabitants of Sumy, Romny, Nedryhailiv, Putyvl’ and Lypova Dolyna districts, where the highest integrated indicator value was observed , have a high risk of dying from diseases of the cardiovascular system,. At the same time for the city of Sumy, Bilopillia and Krasnopillia districts, a low level of the mortality risk from CVDs is characteristic. Among the able-bodied population of Sumy region, the inhabitants of Seredyna-Buda and Yampil’ districts are at the highest risk of mortality from CVDs. A forecast of the mortality of the population of Sumy region before 2023 was made. The baseline scenario showed a decrease of mortality from CVDs by 2.1 %. From the optimistic forecast (lower 95% confidence bound) the mortality rate from CVDs for 2023 will fall by 19.4%, while the pessimistic forecast (upper 95% confidence bound) shows an increase in the mortality rate by 13.3 %. As a result of ranking the values of the integrated indicator of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, it was found that in the first place is the risk of dying from a stroke, in the second place – from cerebrovascular diseases, and in third place – from strokes with hypertension. Next are the risks of dying from coronary heart disease and myocardial infarction. The results of the study can be used by local authorities to prevent the growth of morbidity and mortality from diseases of this nosological class, as well as for development of preventive measures and stabilization of the health status of the population of Sumy region.