Open AccessStatistical-Mathematical Modelling of Prices of Consumer Goods and Services in Lithuania
Author(s) -
Žilvinas Kalinauskas,
Bronislava Kaminskienė,
Римантас Рудзкис
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
ekonomika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2424-6166
pISSN - 1392-1258
DOI - 10.15388/ekon.1997.16428
Subject(s) - econometrics , price index , industrial production index , economics , construct (python library) , index (typography) , autoregressive model , goods and services , economic indicator , vector autoregression , consumer price index (south africa) , industrial production , statistical model , production (economics) , monetary policy , statistics , computer science , mathematics , economy , macroeconomics , world wide web , programming language
Monthly data on price indices of consumer goods and services as well as groups of some goods and the principal monetary indices in Lithuania are considered in this paper using methods of mathematical statistics. The main goal of this work is to construct mathematical models of the consumer price (ePI) index, fit for short-term prediction. Statistical dependency between prices and monetary indicators is investigated in the paper. Trends and seasonal components are estimated. Random fluctuations are described using autoregression models. Regressive models of prices and monetary indicators as regressors are constructed. Errors of indicator prediction using the proposed models are estimated. An expert analysis of the state of the national economy is made, taking into account changes in price, production, and unemployment indicators. Due to data inaccuracy and frequent recalculation of indicators, only a qualitative analysis was made without applying mathematical means.