Open AccessEstimating the impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish economy with input-output analysis
Author(s) -
Eladio Febrero,
Fernando Bermejo Patón
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
revista galega de economía
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.159
H-Index - 6
eISSN - 2255-5951
pISSN - 1132-2799
DOI - 10.15304/rge.30.1.7105
Subject(s) - shock (circulatory) , covid-19 , population , economics , cover (algebra) , supply shock , supply side , econometrics , demographic economics , macroeconomics , engineering , medicine , virology , environmental health , mechanical engineering , monetary policy , disease , pathology , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty)
In this paper we present a forecast of the impact of measures to stem Covid-19 on the Spanish economy at a highly disaggregate level, using input-output techniques. Our estimations cover the period 2020-2021, and we consider two scenarios depending on the possibility of a second wave of massive infections in the autumn of 2020. In 2020, the lockdown of the population and the shutdown of a large part of the production system for several weeks are a supply-side shock that will be followed by a demand-side shock whose impact is expected to be even larger. In 2021 there will be some recovery, although we believe that it will not be sufficient for offsetting the initial negative shock. al negative shock.