Open AccessA window of opportunity for intensifying testing and tracing efforts to prevent new COVID-19 outbreaks due to more transmissible variants
Author(s) -
Jianhong Wu,
Francesca Scarabel,
Zachary McCarthy,
Yanyu Xiao,
Nicholas H. Ogden
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
canada communicable disease report
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1481-8531
pISSN - 1188-4169
DOI - 10.14745/ccdr.v47i78a06
Subject(s) - contact tracing , outbreak , psychological intervention , transmissibility (structural dynamics) , public health , covid-19 , environmental health , transmission (telecommunications) , basic reproduction number , public health interventions , pandemic , disease control , medicine , disease , business , infectious disease (medical specialty) , virology , computer science , pathology , telecommunications , population , physics , vibration isolation , psychiatry , quantum mechanics , vibration
Background: When public health interventions are being loosened after several days of decline in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, it is of critical importance to identify potential strategies to ease restrictions while mitigating a new wave of more transmissible variants of concern (VOCs). We estimated the necessary enhancements to public health interventions for a partial reopening of the economy while avoiding the worst consequences of a new outbreak, associated with more transmissible VOCs. Methods: We used a transmission dynamics model to quantify conditions that combined public health interventions must meet to reopen the economy without a large outbreak. These conditions are those that maintain the control reproduction number below unity, while accounting for an increase in transmissibility due to VOC. Results: We identified combinations of the proportion of individuals exposed to the virus who are traced and quarantined before becoming infectious, the proportion of symptomatic individuals confirmed and isolated, and individual daily contact rates needed to ensure the control reproduction number remains below unity. Conclusion: Our analysis indicates that the success of restrictive measures including lockdown and stay-at-home orders, as reflected by a reduction in number of cases, provides a narrow window of opportunity to intensify case detection and contact tracing efforts to prevent a new wave associated with circulation of more transmissible VOCs.