Open AccessFORECASTING FARMER EXCHANGE RATE IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE USING VECTOR INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE
Author(s) -
Trimono Trimono,
Abdulah Sonhaji,
Utriweni Mukhaiyar
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
media statistika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2477-0647
DOI - 10.14710/medstat.13.2.182-193
Subject(s) - livelihood , agriculture , java , welfare , population , agricultural economics , geography , agricultural science , business , economics , environmental science , computer science , demography , archaeology , sociology , market economy , programming language
Farmer Exchange Rate (FER) is an indicator that can be used to measure the level of farmers welfare. For every agriculture sector, FER is affected by the historical price of harvest from the corresponding sector and historical prices of other agriculture sectors. In Central Java Province, rice & palawija, horticulture, and fisheries are the largest agriculture sectors which is the main livelihood for most of the population. FER forecasting is a crucial thing to determine the level of farmers welfare in the future. One method that can be used to predict the value of a variable that is influenced by the historical value of several variables is Vector Time Series. An empirical study was conducted using FER data from the rice & palawija, horticulture and fisheries sectors for January 2011-June 2017 in Central Java Province. The results obtained show that by using the VIMA(2.1) model, the FER prediction was very accurate, with MAPE values were 1.91% (rice & palawija sector), 2.44% (horticulture sector), and 2.18% (fisheries sector).