Open AccessPERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
Author(s) -
Herni Utami,
Yunita Wulan Sari,
Subanar Subanar,
Abdurakhman Abdurakhman,
Gunardi Gunardi
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
media statistika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2477-0647
DOI - 10.14710/medstat.12.2.214-225
Subject(s) - singular spectrum analysis , electricity demand , electricity , spectral analysis , series (stratigraphy) , time series , mathematics , econometrics , statistics , computer science , engineering , algorithm , electricity generation , power (physics) , electrical engineering , singular value decomposition , physics , paleontology , quantum mechanics , spectroscopy , biology
This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.