PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA) | Zendy

Herni Utami | Zendy; Yunita Wulan Sari | Zendy; Subanar Subanar | Zendy; Abdurakhman Abdurakhman | Zendy; Gunardi Gunardi | Zendy

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PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)

Author(s) -

Herni Utami,

Yunita Wulan Sari,

Subanar Subanar,

Abdurakhman Abdurakhman,

Gunardi Gunardi

Publication year - 2019

Publication title -

media statistika

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

ISSN - 2477-0647

DOI - 10.14710/medstat.12.2.214-225

Subject(s) - singular spectrum analysis , electricity demand , electricity , spectral analysis , series (stratigraphy) , time series , mathematics , econometrics , statistics , computer science , engineering , algorithm , electricity generation , power (physics) , electrical engineering , singular value decomposition , physics , paleontology , quantum mechanics , spectroscopy , biology

This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.

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