Open AccessImplicit Factors and Voting Behaviour Inconsistency: From Theoretical Concept to Empirical Phenomenon
Author(s) -
Олег Леонидович Чернозуб
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
monitoring obŝestvennogo mneniâ: èkonomičeskie i socialʹnye peremeny
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.359
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 2219-5467
pISSN - 1815-8617
DOI - 10.14515/monitoring.2020.4.1584
Subject(s) - phenomenon , voting , anger , implicit association test , implicit attitude , polling , test (biology) , social psychology , scale (ratio) , action (physics) , psychology , empirical research , public opinion , association (psychology) , sample (material) , computer science , cognitive psychology , political science , epistemology , politics , paleontology , philosophy , physics , quantum mechanics , law , psychotherapist , biology , operating system , chemistry , chromatography
Several recent elections and referendums were marked by a dramatic failure in pre-election prediction based on large-scale surveys among voters. As a reaction to public anger and discontent among politicians alternative strategies (prediction markets, Implicit Association Test (IAT), expectation-based forecast, etc.) are being developed. The industry of election polling has also made progress: a number of studies have shown that a relatively low accuracy of forecasts was caused by inconsistencies in sample design and implementation. The present article considers another factor behind election forecast errors: insufficiency of data about the declared intentions needed to make an accurate prediction. For this purpose, the author introduces a tool called GATA (Graphic Association Test of Attitude) measuring implicit attitudes/intentions and proposes to add a “stream” of implicit effects to the usual Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). According to the findings, implicit factors are an actual and clearly detected phenomenon; inconsistency in explicit and implicit attitudes/intentions is typical of many voters.The present article aims to present this phenomenon. This will be followed by another article (Implicit Factors and Voting Behavior Inconsistency: From an Attitude to Behavior) in the next issue of the Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes (2020, no.5) which will highlight behavioral effects of inconsistencies and the results of a combined use of implicit and explicit factors in the election forecast model.