Forecasting and Effectiveness Analysis of Domestic Airplane Passengers in Yogyakarta Adisutjipto Airport with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous (ARIMAX) Model

Airplane is one of the public transportations options that many people choose when traveling long distance. Nowadays, it is notes that the number of passengers domestic flight has increased from the previous months. This increase, especially occurs on the holidays, such as year-end holidays, Eid, and others. The increase of airplane passengers is inversely proportional to the number of available airplane. Forecasting the number of airplane passangers is necessary to prepare additional facilities when there is increasing passengers. This research focused on forecasting domestic airplane passengers at Adisucipto Airport, Yogyakarta using ARIMAX method to forecast the number of domestic airplane passengers and the effectiveness of domestic passengers at the international airport. The purpose of this research is to determine the best ARIMAX model and forecast airplane passengers in Adisucipto airport. The results will show the effectiveness of ARIMAX model with the effect of calendar variance on domestic airplane passenger forecasting at international airport. Based on the result of AIC and RMSE values, it shows that the ARIMAX(1,0,1) model with calendar variation is better than ARIMA(1,0,1) in predicting the number of airplane passengers at Yogyakarta Adisutjipto airport.