Open AccessUsing analysis of time series to forecast the number of patients with tuberculosis: a case study in Khartoum state from 2007 to 2016
Author(s) -
Abu Elgasim Abow Mohammed
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
international journal of advanced statistics and probability
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2307-9045
DOI - 10.14419/ijasp.v6i1.8751
Subject(s) - quartile , autoregressive integrated moving average , series (stratigraphy) , tuberculosis , time series , statistics , medicine , mathematics , confidence interval , paleontology , pathology , biology
This paper used time series analysis to predict the number of tuberculosis (TB) patients in Khartoum state. It is based on data obtained from TB patients the period from 2007 to 2016. The study was able to determine the best model of order (2) ARIMA (2, 1, 0) for data. The most important result of the study is to estimate the number of patients with TB the next four years in quartile basis. So, the forecasting value represented the source time series data and was observed to decrease.