Open AccessMethods for choice of model in descriptive time se-ries : A review with example
Author(s) -
Dennis Enegesele,
Ifeanyi Iwueze,
Maxwell Azubuike Ijomah,
Taiwo Owolabi
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
international journal of advanced statistics and probability
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2307-9045
DOI - 10.14419/ijasp.v6i1.8606
Subject(s) - multiplicative function , series (stratigraphy) , computer science , decomposition , autoregressive integrated moving average , decomposition method (queueing theory) , additive model , algorithm , mathematics , time series , statistics , mathematical analysis , ecology , paleontology , biology
This paper is a review of existing methods with illustrative examples for choice of model in descriptive time series. The methods reviewed are three graphical methods, X-12 ARIMA method and the method of seasonal differences and quotients. For each method, the same illustrative example and simulated data were used to demonstrate each method. The results obtained from the various methods using simulated additive and multiplicative series show that the various methods identified correctly the appropriate model for decomposition. Also, applying the various methods to quarterly sales of petroleum products from 2004-2013, the result reviewed that the appropriated model for decomposition of the series is the multiplicative model.