Open AccessANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT USING THE ANALOG MODEL OF L. R. KLEIN
Author(s) -
Кузьмин Петр Иннокентьевич,
Зиновьев Аркадий Гавриилович
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
èkonomika, professiâ, biznes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2414-5890
pISSN - 2413-8584
DOI - 10.14258/epb201972
Subject(s) - gross regional product , economic statistics , gross domestic product , econometric model , product (mathematics) , economics , population , economic indicator , gross output , shift share analysis , regional science , economy , econometrics , production (economics) , geography , economic growth , macroeconomics , mathematics , geometry , demography , sociology
The article is devoted to the use of analysis and assessment methods for the development of the regional economy, based on a system of interrelated indicators characterizing the state and development of the region’s economy. One of these key statistics is gross regional product. Based on the gross regional product, an assessment is made of the results of production, the level of socio-economic development, the volume of material wealth of the population, the rate of economic growth, etc. The specifics of the conditions of the regional economic system, with the leading role of territorial factors in the development of socio-economic processes in the region, requires the need to formulate new approaches to assessing and analyzing the development of the regional economy that meet the requirements of a market economy. The basis of such approaches is the mechanism of using econometric methods in the process of economic and mathematical modeling of gross regional product in order to show the relationship and interdependence between the main economic indicators of the region. Using an analogue of the model L. R. Klein, the authors of this article built a system of simultaneous equations that establish the relationship between the gross regional product (GRP) and the aggregate of the main regional indicators of the Altai Territory based on statistical information from the Federal State Statistics Service in the Altai Territory. The construction of such an econometric GRP model will allow for continuous monitoring and diagnostics of the main generalizing economic indicators of the region, relying on the identified causal relationships between them, as well as identifying regional factors in the structure of the GRP, contributing to the acceleration of the socioeconomic development of the region, both in terms of the conditions for their formation and increase the efficiency of their use, and in ensuring sustainability and determining forecast estimates of the region’s economy. Based on the constructed model, the article analyzes the interconnections and interdependencies of the gross regional product on the cost of fixed assets, investments, the actual volume of household consumption and other economic indicators in comparable prices in 2016.