Open AccessQuantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world
Author(s) -
Dong Jiang,
Tian Ma,
Mengmeng Hao,
Fangyu Ding,
Kening Sun,
Qian Wang,
Tingting Kang,
Di Wang,
Shen Zhao,
Meng Li,
Xiaolan Xie,
Peiwei Fan,
Ze Meng,
Shize Zhang,
Yushu Qian,
John Edwards,
Shuai Chen,
Yin Li
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0267128
Subject(s) - geography , distribution (mathematics) , livestock , african swine fever , scope (computer science) , environmental protection , environmental health , socioeconomics , ecology , biology , medicine , virology , forestry , mathematical analysis , virus , mathematics , sociology , computer science , programming language
African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world’s domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.