Open AccessThe estimated benefits of increasing cigarette prices through taxation on the burden of disease and economic burden of smoking in Nigeria: A modeling study
Author(s) -
Ariel Bardach,
Agustín Casarini,
Federico Rodríguez Cairoli,
Adetayo Olaniyi Adeniran,
Marco Castradori,
Precious C. Akau,
Chukwuka Onyekwena,
Natalia Espínola,
Paúl Andrés,
Alfredo Palacios
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0264757
Subject(s) - environmental health , economic cost , tobacco control , disease burden , medicine , economic impact analysis , consumption (sociology) , tax revenue , cost–benefit analysis , productivity , indirect costs , revenue , burden of disease , years of potential life lost , public health , economics , economic growth , public economics , life expectancy , population , ecology , social science , nursing , neoclassical economics , accounting , sociology , biology , microeconomics
Background Globally, tobacco consumption continues to cause a considerable burden of preventable diseases. Although the smoking prevalence in Nigeria may be declining over the last years, the absolute number of active smokers remains one of the highest in Africa. Little is known about the disease burden and economic costs of cigarette smoking in Nigeria. Consequently, there is an evidence gap to inform the design and implementation of an effective policy for tobacco control. Methods We applied a microsimulation model to estimate the burden attributable to smoking in terms of morbidity, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and direct medical costs and indirect costs (e.g., productivity loss costs, informal caregivers’ costs). We also modeled the health and economic impact of different scenarios of tobacco price increases through taxes. Results We estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 29,000 annual deaths in Nigeria. This burden corresponds to 816,230 DALYs per year. In 2019, the total economic burden attributable to tobacco was estimated at ₦ 634 billion annually (approximately U$D 2.07 billion). If tobacco cigarettes’ prices were to be raised by 50% through taxes, more than 30,000 deaths from smoking-attributable diseases would be averted in 10 years, with subsequent savings on direct and indirect costs of ₦597 billion and increased tax revenue collection of ₦369 billion. Conclusion In Nigeria, tobacco is responsible for substantial health and economic burden. Increasing tobacco taxes could reduce this burden and produce net economic benefits.