Open AccessRe-analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 series using an extended integer-valued time series models: A situational assessment of the COVID-19 in Mauritius
Author(s) -
Ashwinee Devi Soobhug,
Homeswaree Jowaheer,
Naushad Mamode Khan,
Neeshti Reetoo,
Kursheed Meethoo-Badulla,
Laurent Musango,
Célestin C. Kokonendji,
Azmi Chutoo,
Nawel Aries
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0263515
Subject(s) - negative binomial distribution , count data , covariate , overdispersion , series (stratigraphy) , poisson distribution , statistics , time series , covid-19 , econometrics , integer (computer science) , mathematics , event (particle physics) , dispersion (optics) , poisson regression , computer science , medicine , biology , population , paleontology , physics , disease , environmental health , pathology , quantum mechanics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , optics , programming language
This paper proposes some high-ordered integer-valued auto-regressive time series process of order p (INAR( p )) with Zero-Inflated and Poisson-mixtures innovation distributions, wherein the predictor functions in these mentioned distributions allow for covariate specification, in particular, time-dependent covariates. The proposed time series structures are tested suitable to model the SARs-CoV-2 series in Mauritius which demonstrates excess zeros and hence significant over-dispersion with non-stationary trend. In addition, the INAR models allow the assessment of possible causes of COVID-19 in Mauritius. The results illustrate that the event of Vaccination and COVID-19 Stringency index are the most influential factors that can reduce the locally acquired COVID-19 cases and ultimately, the associated death cases. Moreover, the INAR(7) with Zero-inflated Negative Binomial innovations provides the best fitting and reliable Root Mean Square Errors, based on some short term forecasts. Undeniably, these information will hugely be useful to Mauritian authorities for implementation of comprehensive policies.