Open AccessA Bayesian approach to combining multiple information sources: Estimating and forecasting childhood obesity in Thailand
Author(s) -
John Bryant,
Jongjit Rittirong,
Wichai Aekplakorn,
Ladda Mosuwan,
Pimolpan Nitnara
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0262047
Subject(s) - bayesian probability , residence , bayes' theorem , childhood obesity , obesity , econometrics , small area estimation , statistics , geography , computer science , demography , medicine , overweight , mathematics , sociology , estimator
We estimate and forecast childhood obesity by age, sex, region, and urban-rural residence in Thailand, using a Bayesian approach to combining multiple source of information. Our main sources of information are survey data and administrative data, but we also make use of informative prior distributions based on international estimates of obesity trends and on expectations about smoothness. Although the final model is complex, the difficulty of building and understanding the model is reduced by the fact that it is composed of many smaller submodels. For instance, the submodel describing trends in prevalences is specified separately from the submodels describing errors in the data sources. None of our Thai data sources has more than 7 time points. However, by combining multiple data sources, we are able to fit relatively complicated time series models. Our results suggest that obesity prevalence has recently starting rising quickly among Thai teenagers throughout the country, but has been stable among children under 5 years old.