Open AccessPrediction of viral symptoms using wearable technology and artificial intelligence: A pilot study in healthcare workers
Author(s) -
Pierre-François D’Haese,
Victor Finomore,
Dmitry Lesnik,
Laura Kornhauser,
Tobias Schaefer,
Peter Konrad,
Sally Hodder,
Clay B. Marsh,
Ali R. Rezai
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0257997
Subject(s) - medicine , wearable computer , viral load , population , health care , public health , wearable technology , immunology , computer science , environmental health , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , pathology , economics , embedded system , economic growth
Conventional testing and diagnostic methods for infections like SARS-CoV-2 have limitations for population health management and public policy. We hypothesize that daily changes in autonomic activity, measured through off-the-shelf technologies together with app-based cognitive assessments, may be used to forecast the onset of symptoms consistent with a viral illness. We describe our strategy using an AI model that can predict, with 82% accuracy (negative predictive value 97%, specificity 83%, sensitivity 79%, precision 34%), the likelihood of developing symptoms consistent with a viral infection three days before symptom onset. The model correctly predicts, almost all of the time (97%), individuals who will not develop viral-like illness symptoms in the next three days. Conversely, the model correctly predicts as positive 34% of the time, individuals who will develop viral-like illness symptoms in the next three days. This model uses a conservative framework, warning potentially pre-symptomatic individuals to socially isolate while minimizing warnings to individuals with a low likelihood of developing viral-like symptoms in the next three days. To our knowledge, this is the first study using wearables and apps with machine learning to predict the occurrence of viral illness-like symptoms. The demonstrated approach to forecasting the onset of viral illness-like symptoms offers a novel, digital decision-making tool for public health safety by potentially limiting viral transmission.