Open AccessTransboundary spread of peste des petits ruminants virus in western China: A prediction model
Author(s) -
Shan Gao,
GuoYong Xu,
Zan Zeng,
JiaNing Lv,
Liang Huang,
Haoning Wang,
Xiaolong Wang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0257898
Subject(s) - livestock , china , transmission (telecommunications) , geography , wildlife , peste des petits ruminants , endangered species , peste des petits ruminants virus , socioeconomics , biology , outbreak , virology , ecology , computer science , virus , habitat , forestry , telecommunications , archaeology , sociology
In pan Pamir Plateau countries, Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) has brought huge losses to the livestock industry and threaten the endangered wildlife. In unknown regions, revealing PPRV transmission among countries is the premise of effective prevention and control, therefore calls for quantified monitoring on disease communication among countries. In this paper, a MaxEnt model was built for the first time to predict the PPR risk within the research area. The least cost path (LCP) for PPR transboundary communication were calculated and referred to as the maximum available paths (MAP). The results show that there are many places with high-risk in the research area, and the domestic risk in China is lower than that in foreign countries and is mainly determined by human activities. Five LCPs representing corridors among Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, India and China were obtained. This study proves for the first time that there is the possibility of cross-border transmission of diseases by wild and domestic animals. In the future, it will play an important role in monitoring the PPR epidemic and blocking-up its cross-border transmission.