Open AccessCharacterizing the sectoral development of cities
Author(s) -
Diego Rybski,
Prajal Pradhan,
Shade T. Shutters,
Van Butsic,
Jürgen P. Kropp
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0254601
Subject(s) - metropolitan area , gross domestic product , agriculture , differential (mechanical device) , distribution (mathematics) , agricultural economics , confidence interval , product (mathematics) , geography , regional science , economic geography , econometrics , economic growth , economics , statistics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , geometry , archaeology , aerospace engineering , engineering
Previous research has identified a predictive model of how a nation’s distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) among agriculture ( a ), industry ( i ), and services ( s ) changes as a country develops. Here we use this national model to analyze the composition of GDP for US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) over time. To characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development we explore a simple system of differential equations proposed in the country-level model. Fitting the model to more than 120 MSAs we find that according to the obtained parameters MSAs can be classified into 6 groups (consecutive, high industry, re-industrializing; each of them also with reversed development direction). The consecutive transfer ( a → i → s ) is common but does not represent all MSAs examined. At the 95% confidence level, 40% of MSAs belong to types exhibiting an increasing share of GDP from agriculture. In California, such MSAs, which we classify as part of an agriculture renaissance, are found in the Central Valley.