Open AccessControl strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run
Author(s) -
Yatang Lin,
Fangyuan Peng
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0253901
Subject(s) - covid-19 , pandemic , china , term (time) , control (management) , computer science , econometrics , virology , biology , medicine , mathematics , geography , infectious disease (medical specialty) , artificial intelligence , outbreak , physics , disease , archaeology , quantum mechanics , pathology
The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control.