Open AccessEstimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave
Author(s) -
Nicolas Banholzer,
Eva van Weenen,
Adrian Lison,
Alberto Cenedese,
Arne Seeliger,
Bernhard Kratzwald,
Daniel Tschernutter,
Joan Puig Salles,
Pierluigi Bottrighi,
Sonja Lehtinen,
Stefan Feuerriegel,
Werner Vach
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0252827
Subject(s) - psychological intervention , covid-19 , pandemic , epidemic control , medicine , demography , environmental health , geography , virology , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , sociology , nursing , disease , pathology
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly developed into a global epidemic. To control its spread, countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures, bans of small gatherings, or even stay-at-home orders. Here we study the effectiveness of seven NPIs in reducing the number of new infections, which was inferred from the reported cases of COVID-19 using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n = 20 countries (i.e., the United States, Canada, Australia, the EU-15 countries, Norway, and Switzerland), we estimate the relative reduction in the number of new infections attributed to each NPI. Among the NPIs considered, bans of large gatherings were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work-from-home orders were least effective. With this retrospective cross-country analysis, we provide estimates regarding the effectiveness of different NPIs during the first epidemic wave.