Open AccessImpact of different control policies for COVID-19 outbreak on the air transportation industry: A comparison between China, the U.S. and Singapore
Author(s) -
Fanyu Meng,
Wenwu Gong,
Jun Liang,
Li Xian,
Yiping Zeng,
Lili Yang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0248361
Subject(s) - china , intervention (counseling) , revenue , business , control (management) , economic impact analysis , covid-19 , air traffic control , transport engineering , engineering , economics , geography , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , finance , disease , civil engineering , management , archaeology , pathology , aerospace engineering , psychiatry
Many countries have been implementing various control measures with different strictness levels to prevent the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading. With the great reduction in human mobility and daily activities, considerable impacts have been imposed on the global air transportation industry. This study applies a hybrid SARIMA-based intervention model to measure the differences in the impacts of different control measures implemented in China, the U.S. and Singapore on air passenger and air freight traffic. To explore the effect of time span for the measures to be in force, two scenarios are invented, namely a long-term intervention and a short-term intervention, and predictions are made till the end of 2020 for all three countries under both scenarios. As a result, predictive patterns of the selected metrics for the three countries are rather different. China is predicted to have the mildest economic impact on the air transportation industry in this year in terms of air passenger revenue and air cargo traffic, provided that the control measures were prompt and effective. The U.S. would suffer from a far-reaching impact on the industry if the same control measures are maintained. More uncertainties are found for Singapore, as it is strongly associated with international travel demands. Suggestions are made for the three countries and the rest of the world on how to seek a balance between the strictness of control measures and the potential long-term industrial losses.