Open AccessRelationships between migration and the fiscal sustainability of the pension system in China
Author(s) -
Haoyu Hu,
Wang Wei,
Dawei Feng,
Hualei Yang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0248138
Subject(s) - solvency , china , urbanization , pension , context (archaeology) , industrialisation , sustainability , fiscal sustainability , panel data , population , economics , geography , economic growth , fiscal policy , macroeconomics , finance , econometrics , medicine , environmental health , market economy , ecology , archaeology , biology , market liquidity
There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China’s pension system’s fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker’s old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.