Regional differences in socioeconomic trends: The spatiotemporal evolution from individual cities to a megacity region over a long time series

Regional differences in socioeconomic factors are important for assessing the regional development of an area. While much research has focused on the overall patterns of regional differences within independent cities and areas, the hierarchical spatiotemporal structures of megacity regions have seldom been discussed. To fill this gap, this paper investigates the multilevel regional differences within megacity regions. Employing GDP, population and total retail sales as socioeconomic indicators, the spatiotemporal patterns of socioeconomic trends are identified. A hierarchical clustering approach that utilizes socioeconomic similarities is proposed for the identification of the spatiotemporal patterns of individual cities. At the megacity regional level, gravity centers and pathways are constructed to evaluate spatial imbalances and temporal change intensities. Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as its study area, this research produces results that show diverse spatiotemporal patterns among the individual cities, revealing high/low starting point and high/low growth rate modes in terms of city interactions. From the perspective of the entire GBA, the spatial imbalance of GDP is the highest of the factors, followed by the spatial imbalance of the total retail sales of the region and, finally, by that of its population. Total retail sales exhibit the highest level of temporal change intensity, followed by GDP and population. In terms of the contribution of the various cities to the overall regional changes, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong dominate the spatiotemporal changes in the gravity centers, while Foshan and Dongguan show significant potential to contribute to these socioeconomic patterns. These results provide effective guidance for the sustainable development of megacity regions.