Open AccessA new method for estimating HIV incidence from a single cross-sectional survey
Author(s) -
Ian E. Fellows,
Ray W. Shiraishi,
Peter Cherutich,
Thomas Achia,
Peter W. Young,
Andrea A. Kim
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0237221
Subject(s) - estimator , statistics , incidence (geometry) , population , cross sectional study , point estimation , transmission (telecommunications) , estimation , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , demography , econometrics , medicine , computer science , mathematics , environmental health , virology , engineering , telecommunications , geometry , systems engineering , sociology
Estimating incidence from cross-sectional data sources is both important to the understanding of the HIV epidemic and challenging from a methodological standpoint. We develop a new incidence estimator that measures the size of the undiagnosed population and the amount of time spent undiagnosed in order to infer incidence and transmission rates. The estimator is calculated using commonly collected information on testing history and HIV status and, thus, can be deployed in many HIV surveys without additional cost. If ART biomarker status and/or viral load information is available, the estimator can be adjusted for biases in self-reported testing history. The performance of the estimator is explored in two large surveys in Kenya, where we find our point estimates to be consistent with assay-derived estimates, with much smaller standard errors.