Open AccessGlobal socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic
Author(s) -
Manfred Lenzen,
Mengyu Li,
Arunima Malik,
Francesco Pomponi,
Yung-Nien Sun,
Thomas Wiedmann,
Futu Faturay,
Jacob Fry,
Blanca Gallego,
Arne Geschke,
Jorge Gómez-Paredes,
Keiichiro Kanemoto,
Steven Kenway,
Keisuke Nansai,
Mikhail Prokopenko,
Takako Wakiyama,
Yafei Wang,
Moslem Yousefzadeh
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0235654
Subject(s) - pandemic , greenhouse gas , consumption (sociology) , natural resource economics , tourism , economic impact analysis , climate change , development economics , covid-19 , global warming , economics , business , geography , ecology , biology , medicine , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , social science , archaeology , sociology , microeconomics
On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: “ [COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis . We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)”. Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM 2.5 , and 5.1Mt of SO 2 and NO x . While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.