Open AccessModeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones
Author(s) -
Leonid Sedov,
А. В. Красночуб,
Valentin Polishchuk
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0235307
Subject(s) - quarantine , epidemic model , covid-19 , drone , pandemic , population , metropolitan area , mass vaccination , computer science , statistics , virology , biology , geography , mathematics , medicine , environmental health , outbreak , ecology , genetics , archaeology , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease
We extend the classical SIR epidemic spread model by introducing the “quarantined” compartment. We solve (numerically) the differential equations that govern the extended model and quantify how quarantining “flattens the curve” for the proportion of infected population over time. Furthermore, we explore the potential of using drones to deliver tests, enabling mass-testing for the infection; we give a method to estimate the drone fleet needed to deliver the tests in a metropolitan area. Application of our models to COVID-19 spread in Sweden shows how the proposed methods could substantially decrease the peak number of infected people, almost without increasing the duration of the epidemic.