Open AccessLife expectancy and survival analysis of patients with diabetes compared to the non diabetic population in Bulgaria
Author(s) -
Konstantin Tachkov,
Konstantin Mitov,
Yordanka Koleva,
Zornitsa Mitkova,
Maria Kamusheva,
Maria Dimitrova,
Valentina Petkova,
Alexandra Savova,
Miglena Doneva,
Dimitar Tcarukciev,
Vasil Valov,
Galia Angelova,
Manoela Manova,
Guenka Petrova
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0232815
Subject(s) - life expectancy , medicine , population , diabetes mellitus , type 2 diabetes , demography , survival analysis , proportional hazards model , mortality rate , relative risk , gerontology , endocrinology , confidence interval , environmental health , sociology
Aims To evaluate the expected life expectancy in patients with diabetes in Bulgaria and to compare it to the expected life expectancy of the non-diabetic population in the country. Methods It is a retrospective observational population study on individuals diagnosed with diabetes, compared to the non-diabetic population in Bulgaria for the period 2012–2015. Data from the national diabetes register and national statistical institute were used to construct life-tables with probability of survival with t-test and Chi Square test. Confounder analysis was done by age, sex, and type of diabetes. All-cause mortality and deaths in diabetic patients were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed for each age group and a log-rank analysis was conducted. Results Average life expectancy in the non-diabetic population, patients with Type 1 DM and with Type 2 DM is 74.8; 70.96 and 75.19 years, respectively. For 2012–2015 the mortality in the non-diabetic population remained constant and lower (average—1.48%) compared to type-1 DM (5.25%) and Type-2 (4.27%). Relative risk of death in diabetics was higher overall (12%), after the age of 70 before which the relative risk was higher for the non-diabetic population. This was observed as a trend in all analyzed years. Conclusion Patients with type 2 DM have a longer life-expectancy than patients with type-1 DM and overall Diabetics life expectancy equals that of the non-diabetic population, which could suggest improved disease control and its associated complications in Bulgaria. Male diabetics show slightly longer life expectancy than their counterparts in the non-diabetic population, by a marginal gain of 0.6 years for the entire observed period. Life expectancy in diabetic women increased by 1.3 years, which was not observed in the non-diabetic population. Prevalence of diabetes was higher for women. Improved diabetes control may explain this gain in life; however other studies are needed to confirm this.