Open AccessAn improved gray prediction model for China’s beef consumption forecasting
Author(s) -
Bo Zeng,
Shuliang Li,
Wei Meng,
Dehai Zhang
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0221333
Subject(s) - gray (unit) , china , consumption (sociology) , econometrics , predictive modelling , economics , agricultural economics , computer science , statistics , mathematics , geography , medicine , social science , archaeology , sociology , radiology
To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1, r ), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1, r ) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1, r ) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef.